Emphases and comments added.
Immigration increases to levels too high for effective assimilation, and new ideas and cultural norms displace those of the founding stock. Like Robert Putnam, Glubb stresses that immigrants aren’t inferior, but erode cultural cohesion. Indeed, Glubb notes that “many of the foreign immigrants will probably belong to races originally conquered by and absorbed into the empire” and “when decline sets in, it is extraordinary how the memory of ancient wars, perhaps centuries before, is suddenly revived, and local or provincial movements appear demanding secession or independence.”
This was not true in the past because immigrants were vetted and assimilation was demanded.
A decline in power and wealth combined with internal strife results in a feedback loop creating pessimism and “frivolity.” A populace that cannot be roused to action slips into escapism instead. Glubb compares Roman mobs’ demand for “bread and circuses” to British and American consumption of soccer and baseball. He even writes that “the heroes of declining nations are always the same—the athlete, the singer or the actor,” rather than a statesman, a general, or a literary genius as in previous eras. Remember, Fate of Empires was published in 1977.
Panem et circenses give way to beer, football, legalized dope, and 24/7 pornography, all to keep the masses distracted and sedated.
Other hallmarks of the failing empire include a rise of the welfare state and a decline in religion. Check and check. The former affluence of the nation leads the populace to the “impression that it will always be automatically rich” and “causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses.” These trends are easily observable in the United States. What is the Fed’s balance sheet by the way? Worse, does anyone care?
The religion of the Founders is banned from the public square while the religions of invaders are given a pass.
Glubb notes that it is doubtful that collapse can be avoided by studying the meta-history of empires. Rather, he writes that “in our present state of mental chaos… we divide ourselves into nations, parties or communities and fight, hate and vilify one another over developments which may perhaps be divinely ordained and which seem to us, if we take a broader view, completely uncontrollable and inevitable.”
Events are unfolding in ways we can just barely understand. Our technology has a life of its own and is altering our language and modes of social interaction. Marshall McLuhan should see us now! We become ever more dependent on an incredibly complex and fragile technology while giving no thought about how easy it would be to bring it crashing down. Instead we worry about such phantoms as 'systemic racism.'
If this sounds pessimistic, don’t forget the last three words of Glubb’s title are “Search for Survival.” It is far better to see the world with clear eyes than foolishly hope for a return to “High Noon.” Progressives and populists tend to agree that the future can be better; they just disagree on the route to that better future. We will survive if we are honest in what we face. Yet, questions remain how to proceed. Should we partition the country into separate nations in the hopes of mitigating what may be a Spanish-style civil war or a soft police state of tech overlords?
We need a conversation about partition.
Notable thinkers like Charles Murray suggest that only a religious revival can save the United States. If Glubb is correct that wholesale salvage is impossible, should we protect the embers of Christianity via Rod Dreher’s “Benedict Option,” in the hope that future generations can one day enjoy the full light of Western Civilization? Glubb seems to insinuate this as well, noting that in the depths of decadence the “seeds of religious revival” are sown. As our nation approaches 250 years—a quarter millennium—we should be grateful to have lived in what may be the greatest nation God has known. Perhaps, after the coming unpleasantness, we will find something even greater.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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